Every week the the degenerate gamblers who run this site attempt to pick games for the upcoming college football weekend. We are usually completely and totally wrong, blinded by team allegiance, alumni status, and probably a 5th of Makers. That being the case, we’ve enlisted help of professionals…not for the Makers problem, but for the gambling one. The Geek Sheet experts have decided to set us all straight this season. They’ll be here to give you the winners, blow your mind with high level statistical analysis, and shamelessly plug their own site…which is something we have great admiration for. Be sure to check out their site for more. Now, on to the picks…
The Juice: 10-5
Mike Medallion: 8-7
Bunkie Perkins: 8-7
The Geeks: 8-7
Ark +15 ½ @ Bama
The Juice: Bama. I had some funny comments about this game but literally vomited all over my keyboard after typing Bama and it seems to have short circuited. I’ll just let BIG E do the talking for me.
Mike Medallion: Arkansas. For my picks this week, I took a straw poll of 5 guys while they were watching Bunkie’s No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels and Heisman Trophy candidate Jevan Snead go down in flames on the World Wide Leader on Thursday night. They are (I’ll be usin’ “code names” ($1 to Gale and Evelle Snoats)): PIT, JD, Manbad, Steve Holt!, and Guru. By a vote of 3-2, the group picked the Arkansans. I guess the majority was impressed by the passing performance the Hogs displayed against UGA last week, but more than likely it was the 15 1/2 points.
Bunkie Perkins: Arkansas. The Hogs showed last week that they can put points on the board, but they also showed that they have no ideas on how to prevent others from doing the same. A win versus Georgia last week would have made this a much more intriguing game, but as it stand I think the Hogs hang around long enough to cover.
The Geek: Arkansas I guess we’ll find out what Pigtrino and Ricky Mullet really have cookin’ this week as they’ll get a tall test in the Tide D. Not surprisingly our math is split pretty evenly – 50% have 18-19 pts & 300-325 yards offense & 50% project 28-30 pts and 400+/- yds offense. To me the biggest question is can Arkansas stop anyone on D after giving up 530 to UGA LW? Three games in an I am still not sure what to make of Bama’s Offense, and the only thing I am sure of in this game is I’ll leave with that same question. I do think Arkansas will be able to move the ball on offense, and think this is one of the better offenses in the SEC, but can’t get over the fact that Bama (whether an elite or mediocre SEC offense) may score on every drive…see last week vs a UGA offense with the same question marks. I’ll stick with the Hogs as I think 3 scores vs a Petrino offense is just too much value regardless of how poor their D is. Model Average is 35-24 Tide, which seems pretty fair to me.
Texas Tech +1 ½ @ Houston
TJ: Houston.Why not? A lot of badass Katrina refugees had to grow up and play ball somewhere. Looks like that somewhere turned out to be the University of Houston.
MM: Texas Tech. By a vote of 3-2, the group picked Texas Tech. The majority expects points a plenty in this one, after which Houston returns to the ranks of the unranked.
BP: Houston. I make this pick simply as an homage to David Klingler and Andre Ware…two Heisman trophy winners that to this day you sit and wonder how it happened. A ton of points get scored in this one, with Houston pulling away in the second half for the cover.
The Geek: Houston Pretty much the same story, half our models have an identical score of 38-35 TTU winner, but the other half have nearly identical scores with Houston blowing it out…52-35. Only consistency seems to be with TTU around 35, which given the projections seems about right. No real value to speak of here, but being forced into a choice I usually side with the team that has the most upside (here Houston with a low projection of 35+/- but with upside (50% of math) projections to 50+). Houston has been getting absolutely torched on the ground TY, which is the only thing TTU can’t do (their best performance was52 yds vs Rice followed by 40 yds vs N Dakota)…I’ll stick to my good southern roots which says you don’t win games on the road if you can’t run the ball.
VaTech +2 v. Miami
TJ Miami. Break out your URBAN CAMO, the U is back. At this rate they may start breaking 30,000 attendance at home games…
MM. Miami. By another 3-2 vote, the group went with Miami. The majority agrees with Teh Juice…the U is back…well, at least for now.
BP: Va. Tech. Everyone says the U is back, and while Im not completely sold yet, they do have the makings of a bit of a resurgence. Their early schedule is brutal and I say they slip up somewhere amidst the national hype. I think it might be this weekend against Frank Beamer and his magic skin graft.
The Geek: Va Tech. VT was lucky to escape LW @ home vs a pretty good Neb team, and their Offense continues to be putrid with 155 yds v Bama and 278 LW vs Nebraska (you can pretty much ignore the contest vs Marshall when evaluating how VT will match up to Miami’s D). Miami’s D has looked very good TY vs the run holding both FSU and GT to under 3ypr (2.9 ypr) and right at 105 ypg…for a pretty poor VT offense that can’t beat you passing that spells trouble. Using and adjusted projection of TY and LY results we project a 30-5 yards advantage for Miami; however, if you believe that Miami has turned a corner and use 100% of TYs results that increases to about 120 yds (395-280)…Throw in the ST/Def play vs Bama and the last minute drive LW and the VT offense is barely producing 10ppg…I think Miami is probably the right side (presuming the O continues to click like it has been), but don’t like betting against VT at home in this series (VT is 5-1 ATS @ home in this series)
UNC +2 @ Georgia Tech
TJ: Georgia Tech. Nerds are due one. I’m sure The Geek below has some sort of mathmatical equation to prove his people can pull this one out. I on the other hand follow my gut instincts, and my gut tells me this game belongs to the Tri-Lambs.
MM: Georgia Tech. By a 4-1 vote, the group picked Georgia Tech. The one lone vote for UNC was an Alpha Beta and just couldn’t bring himself to pick the nerds.
BP: Georgia Tech. North Carolina has shown only small signs of possessing anything remotely resembling an offense, while Georgia Tech proves time and time again that they cannot play from behind. They wont need to this week as they pound it out for a tight 3 point win at home versus the Heels.
The Geek: Georgia Tech UNC has looked very nice defending the run allowing only 52 ypg (1.9 ypr) TY to pretty decent teams including UConn and ECU. GTs offense has looked helpless the last 6 quarters (last week v Miami and the 2nd half of the week before v Clemson)…are those anomalies or a sign of teams finally starting to figure out the GT option attack? UNC has the talent and athletes at DE to pressure off the edge which it seems is what Clemson and Miami did the last 2 games vs GT which game them fits. Can PJ adjust? That is the big question, and anyone who thinks they have the answer is full of it. Our math is all over the map, and I don’t trust any of it as I can just as easily see GT explode for 300+ on the ground as I can see them held to under 100 rushing…that is the difference in the game, and I’ll stick to something with a few more known’s…Math is pretty consistent with 330-370 yds and 24-27 for UNC which I think is right on…we’ll split the middle with GT and call for about 370 -380 & 200-230 on the ground for 28, which if we are right is even more reason not to bet it as there doesn’t appear to be any value on GT (28-24 you win, 28-27 you lose…either way you sweat it out for 3 hours).
Ball State +31 @ Auburn
TJ: Auburn. Can they extend this to 4-0 covering the spread? Yes. Yes they can. Sorry David Letterman. And sorry to people from the great state of Ball.
California (-6.5) @ OREGON
MM. Cal. No poll on this one. It’s all me. Initially, I felt like taking Auburn over Ball State, but it’s hard not to go with the BEST running back in college football.
Notre Dame -7 @ Purdue
BP: Notre Dame. Purdue is awful, like really awful. Notre Dame is looking for a rebound after a loss at Michigan and a nail biter versus Michigan State. Take advantage of the conservative line here…the Irish by a bunch.
Stanford -6.5 v. Washington
The Geek: Stanford. This is one of our recommended plays for the week. We were 4-2 overall LW (3-2 on our recommended plays), and our lifetime record (5 years) is 63% (218-121-7), including 68% (52-24-1) last year! We have already released a recommended play on Friday’s Missouri – Nevada game. We are finalizing our card for this week but I looks like we’ll have anywhere from 4-5 recommended plays on Saturday (including Stanford). Click here for our recommended plays this week, including Friday’s game. To see our analysis of the Stanford game, click here. We usually have 3-5 games a week we take a very hard look at but decided to pass on. You can sign up to receive these plays free of charge by visiting our website, www.thegeeksheetsports.com or clicking here.