Every week the the degenerate gamblers who run this site attempt to pick games for the upcoming college football weekend. We are usually completely and totally wrong, blinded by team allegiance, alumni status, and probably a 5th of Makers. That being the case, we’ve enlisted help of professionals…not for the Makers problem, but for the gambling one. The Geek Sheet experts have decided to set us all straight this season. They’ll be here to give you the winners, blow your mind with high level statistical analysis, and shamelessly plug their own site…which is something we have great admiration for. Be sure to check out their site for more. Now, on to the picks…
The Juice: 18-12
Mike Medallion: 13-17
Bunkie Perkins: 14-16
The Geek: 16-14
OU +3 v. Texas (@Cotton Bowl)
The Juice: Texas. Ahh the Red River Shootout, a game waaay too early in the morning during a state fair, attended by carnies and reeking of cotton candy. I like Texas big, because OU is a trendy picks, and trendy picks are for fools.
Mike Medallion: Texas. No reason UT can’t win this game by 4 points. Plus, seeing the wheels start to come off at OU is more satisfying than seeing another top ranked team lose.
Bunkie Perkins: Texas. True story…the worst bout of food poisoning Ive ever had came after I ate a corn dog while pregaming at the Red River Shootout. That night I threw up a small village onto the shoulder of I-75. I blame Oklahoma for my suffering.
The Geek: Texas. OU 23 v. Texas 36. I’ll take the Texas D allowing only 1.6 ypr this year vs the porous OU D allowing an abhorrent 1.8 ypr… Who knows what is going to happen in the Bradford saga, and not sure it matters, this game is tough enough give the 1st sentence that I don’t how you figure it out adding in the OU offense. For what it’s worth we have UT winning 36-23 with a 345-297 advantage in the yardage department (and a 2.5 -2.1 ypr edge rushing).
USC -11 ½ @ ND
TJ: ND. Will she let Charlie go? If so I think the fighting Irish are due one, especially if journeyman 2nd string field goal holder Mitchell Mustain is behind center.
MM: USC. Using “sound football logic” (ND beat UW, UW beat USC), one might pick the Irish here, not me.
BP: USC. The best wins that Notre Dame has under their belts are Washington and Michigan State. The best win USC has is over Ohio State in Columbus. The Irish would have lost that game by 2 touchdowns. It’ll be more than that this weekend.
The Geek: USC. USC 32 (-11 ½) @ ND 18. The only thing that can save the Irish this year is their grounds keeper…am I am not sure even the 8” tall grass the rolled out the last time the Trojan’s came calling will be enough. USCs D is allowing only2.0 ypr and ND projects a -1.5 ypr disadvantage (we call for 2.3 ypr and 78 yards). Carrol and his squad are way too good to beat w/ a one dimensional Claussen…look for him to get roughed up pretty good and probably toss a few to the men from troy.
Ark +24 @ Florida
TJ. Arkansas. Is Arkansas’s offense that GOOD or is Auburn’s defense that BAD? Probably a lot of both. I think if Mallet doesn’t play like a frightened woman as he did in Tuscaloosa, Arkansas will put up enough points to beat the spread.
MM. Flo-rida. 24 looks like a lot of points. It’s really not.
BP: Arkansas. Freakishly tall Ryan Mallet puts up a few scores late to keep Arkansas within 24 as Florida still goes conservative with the play calling to protect the Golden Child.
The Geek: Florida. Ark 19 @ Florida 44 (-24). UFs D is allowing only 115 ypg passing…given how bad they are pounding most people think about how unreal that is…not that Pigtrino will be held to that, but the only thing that keeps this close is another Urban Meyer grind it out take no risks game plan (see UT and LSU)…could easily happen, but no idea how you bet on that…although until I see it on the field I’ll be nowhere in site.
South Carolina +17 @ Bama
MM: Alabama. USC is by no means the worst team in the SEC, but it seems ‘Cock fans are once again starting to have delusions of grandeur. Lord Saban will bring them back to reality.
BP: Bama. To say what Im about to about a Spurrier coached offense hurts my heart a little and probably makes a balding Danny Wuerffel cry…the Cocks don’t score more than 6 this weekend. Bama’s defense is that good and they have been workmanlike in their covering of the spread all year.
The Geek: Alabama. South Carolina 15 @ Bama 32 (-17). I didn’t make that score up, as that is the actual average of our model projections (we utilize 5 independent models to form our projections), all with great consistency around that number…so with 0.38 points of line variance will side with the home team…but there is no reason anyone should be anywhere near this game, as USCs D is capable of slowing Bama down (they only project a 0.2 yppl situational advantage over South Carolina’s D – meaning they are 0.2 yppl better than average on O compared to what USC D is compared to average). Now USCs O might not get to 10 as we project only 226 yards, so the low of 29 for Bama may be enough to cover
Georgia (-7.5) @ Vandy
TJ: Georgia. Yeah the Ginger Ninja lead Dawgs aren’t GREAT this year, but by God they are still 20 points better than Vandy.
Texas Tech (+10.5) @ Nebraska
MM. Texas Tech. This probably isn’t the best game to select or pick to make. But I just can’t ignore that Leach and the Red Raiders are getting 10.5 points.
Georgia -7 1/2 @ Vandy
BP: Georgia. Vandy is horrendous on offense. The completed forward pass will continue to be a mystery this weekend. The Ninja and his minions bounce back after an embarrassing trip to the Smokeys last week.
Hawaii 28 @ Idaho 31 (-11.5)
The Geek: Hawaii. This is one of our recommended plays for the week. We were 5-3 on our recommended plays last week and now 19-13-1 this season with a lifetime record (5 years) of 63% (234-131-8), including 68% (52-24-1) last year! We are finalizing our card for this week but it looks like we’ll have 8 recommended plays on Saturday (including Hawaii). To see our analysis of the Hawaii game, click here. We usually have 3-5 games a week we take a very hard look at but decided to pass on. You can sign up to receive these plays free of charge by visiting our website, www.thegeeksheetsports.com.